It’s a little past midnight and voters in the snowy hamlet of Dixville Notch, NH - all 10 of them - have already cast their first-in-the-nation primary votes for President of the U.S.

It feels a little bit like the night before Christmas, doesn’t it?

It would, except if it weren’t for the fact that there’s little what-am-I-getting-tomorrow surprise here. The voters of Dixville have already chosen Obama and McCain as their standardbearers, and we don’t need polls or pundits to tell us that they’re likely going to win the top spots in the Granite State’s primary contests today, largely thanks to the nearly 45% of the electorate in this state of 1.3 million who register themselves as neither Democrat nor Republican. As Jeff Zeleny of The Times correctly notes, in this race, independents are the prize, and no other candidates in this race have a broader appeal to them than Obama and McCain.

2nd prize will most likely go to big-spender Mitt Romney on the Republican side who, thanks to Mike Huckabee, has found himself to be the Hillary Clinton of his party’s campaign. Huckabee may well ride his minimal (in this decisively non-Evangelical state) momentum to a third-place finish, but if he does it will likely be a razor-thin margin above Giuliani, who enjoys reasonably strong 2nd-tier support in this state thanks to his noun + verb + 9/11 record.

Meanwhile, the real Hillary Clinton will move a notch up from her 3rd place finish in Iowa, ahead of Edwards but still behind the high expectations she set for herself of being the inevitable winner in all the early states.

But if all this comes to pass, what does it mean for the rest of the race?

It means that, try as they might, the I-am-for-change-too (post-Iowa) candidates in either party will have a much harder time catching up to the first mover in this field, Obama, while those who represent anything anti-establishment and non-conventional in the voters’ minds will continue to still have a shot. Read: no third Clinton term, no first Mormon president.

Why no Mitt? In a way, the “Washington is Broken” message that all of a sudden has found its way to the Romney campaign is Mitt’s greatest, and most lethal flip-flop. As Chuck Todd, MSNBC Political Director, rightly points out, Mitt has spent his entire campaign positioning himself as the gold-standard Republican that can carry the flag (i.e., status quo). All of a sudden, he gets the message that - surprise - voters want change and that’s what he stands for and has stood for all his life and his entire campaign. A (rightfully so) skeptical press corps won’t buy it, and neither will voters.

All of which may well mean that as Dixville goes, so will the nation, since Obama and McCain probably stand the best chance of making it to the general elections right now.

And had you told me that last Christmas Day, I would have been surprised.

* * *

(Quick note: yes, I owe you guys a piece on the elephant-in-the-room that is the economy; coming soon).

Share/Save/Bookmark