The weather today in Des Moines is forecast to be “partly cloudy” and “not as cold” as today, with a low of 15 to 20 degrees and a south wind of 10 to 15 mph.

Ah, if only the Iowa caucuses were as easy to call predict.

Indeed the very fact that less than three weeks before the caucuses the Iowa weather forecast for caucus day was a hot topic of discussion on the blogosphere indicates just how fluid and unpredictable this race really is.

Nothwithstanding, after weeks of following the polls, reading the blogs and watching the non-stop election coverage, here are my predictions for the Iowa Caucuses:

On both the Democratic and the Republican fronts, two powerful trends will shape the outcome of the election: voters’ desire for candidates who represent change and a shift away from “conventional wisdom.”

The first is a logical outcome of the obvious. As the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, the U.S. has experienced the most prolonged period of public dissatisfaction in 15 years (measured by the percentage of voters who say the nation is on the wrong track). If that’s so, the “throw the bums out” & turn-a-new-page message - which worked wonderfully for Mayor-elect Michael Nutter in (of all places) Philadelphia - will resound particularly well with voters during this election cycle.

The second trend is really a result of the first: hungry for change, voters are less likely to accept the conventional wisdom of the beltway. And so the candidates and the issues that Washington insiders & the mainstream media predicted would dominate this year’s presidential races, whether it be Clinton vs. Giuliani or Iraq & tarrorism, have failed to materialize.

Considering these, I’d place my chips as follows:

On the Democratic side:

  • Obama will be able to mobilize enough independent voters - who are expected to overwhelmingly caucus with the Democrats - to narrowly win top pick in the caucus. Independents are more likely to vote for Obama, the self-anointed “change” candidate, so if enough of them come out today, he is likely to score a victory.
  • Edwards will come in second, based on his campaign’s well-placed strategy of courting less-populated rural districts that have been ignored by the other candidates. A very similar rural-focus strategy worked for Democrat Rod Blagojevich during the 2002 gubernatorial primary in another corn state, Illinois, and it may well work for Edwards here
  • Hillary Clinton will, defying conventional wisdom, come in third. Her strongest asset in Iowa is her organization and her resource$ - not her appeal (voters prefer change to experience almost by a 2:1 margin) - and given the strong organization of both Obama and Edwards, that won’t be enough to tip the outcome in her favor.

On the Republican side:

  • Huckabee will ride his support among Evangelical Christians to victory, buoyed by his alternative, populist message (again, what voters perceive as a “change” message and candidate and, again, an unconventional outcome to this race).
  • Romney will come in second, thanks to his heavy spending and solid organization, not so much the “Bush - but more competent” appeal.
  • McCain, written off earlier last year by the mainstream media and recently dubbed the “comeback kid” by many of those same media outlets, will be able to keep his campaign alive by coming in a strong third. His record of siding with Bush notwithstanding, many voters still perceive him as a palpable alternative to the Bush-Reagan era and so he also carries an appeal for voters who desire change and a new direction. Plus, voters’ positive perceptions of his integrity and ability to straight-talk will serve him well against his principal rival, Romney, who’s shot himself in the foot (with another gun he doesn’t own?) by going on a last-minute negative offensive against him and providing Huckabee with free ammunition.

The Ron Paul revolution? Not in Iowa, but there’s 49 states left, and Feb. 5th is right around the corner.

Chances are the Des Moines weather forecast will out-forecast me on these predictions, but that’s half the fun of watching election night coverage anyway, so I encourage everyone to place their chips on the table, come home a bit early today, grab a beer, and enjoy the caucus night 08!

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