Cezary Salad

It’s a little past midnight and voters in the snowy hamlet of Dixville Notch, NH - all 10 of them - have already cast their first-in-the-nation primary votes for President of the U.S.

It feels a little bit like the night before Christmas, doesn’t it?

It would, except if it weren’t for the fact that there’s little what-am-I-getting-tomorrow surprise here. The voters of Dixville have already chosen Obama and McCain as their standardbearers, and we don’t need polls or pundits to tell us that they’re likely going to win the top spots in the Granite State’s primary contests today, largely thanks to the nearly 45% of the electorate in this state of 1.3 million who register themselves as neither Democrat nor Republican. As Jeff Zeleny of The Times correctly notes, in this race, independents are the prize, and no other candidates in this race have a broader appeal to them than Obama and McCain.

2nd prize will most likely go to big-spender Mitt Romney on the Republican side who, thanks to Mike Huckabee, has found himself to be the Hillary Clinton of his party’s campaign. Huckabee may well ride his minimal (in this decisively non-Evangelical state) momentum to a third-place finish, but if he does it will likely be a razor-thin margin above Giuliani, who enjoys reasonably strong 2nd-tier support in this state thanks to his noun + verb + 9/11 record.

Meanwhile, the real Hillary Clinton will move a notch up from her 3rd place finish in Iowa, ahead of Edwards but still behind the high expectations she set for herself of being the inevitable winner in all the early states.

But if all this comes to pass, what does it mean for the rest of the race?

It means that, try as they might, the I-am-for-change-too (post-Iowa) candidates in either party will have a much harder time catching up to the first mover in this field, Obama, while those who represent anything anti-establishment and non-conventional in the voters’ minds will continue to still have a shot. Read: no third Clinton term, no first Mormon president.

Why no Mitt? In a way, the “Washington is Broken” message that all of a sudden has found its way to the Romney campaign is Mitt’s greatest, and most lethal flip-flop. As Chuck Todd, MSNBC Political Director, rightly points out, Mitt has spent his entire campaign positioning himself as the gold-standard Republican that can carry the flag (i.e., status quo). All of a sudden, he gets the message that - surprise - voters want change and that’s what he stands for and has stood for all his life and his entire campaign. A (rightfully so) skeptical press corps won’t buy it, and neither will voters.

All of which may well mean that as Dixville goes, so will the nation, since Obama and McCain probably stand the best chance of making it to the general elections right now.

And had you told me that last Christmas Day, I would have been surprised.

* * *

(Quick note: yes, I owe you guys a piece on the elephant-in-the-room that is the economy; coming soon).

The weather today in Des Moines is forecast to be “partly cloudy” and “not as cold” as today, with a low of 15 to 20 degrees and a south wind of 10 to 15 mph.

Ah, if only the Iowa caucuses were as easy to call predict.

Indeed the very fact that less than three weeks before the caucuses the Iowa weather forecast for caucus day was a hot topic of discussion on the blogosphere indicates just how fluid and unpredictable this race really is.

Nothwithstanding, after weeks of following the polls, reading the blogs and watching the non-stop election coverage, here are my predictions for the Iowa Caucuses:

On both the Democratic and the Republican fronts, two powerful trends will shape the outcome of the election: voters’ desire for candidates who represent change and a shift away from “conventional wisdom.”

The first is a logical outcome of the obvious. As the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, the U.S. has experienced the most prolonged period of public dissatisfaction in 15 years (measured by the percentage of voters who say the nation is on the wrong track). If that’s so, the “throw the bums out” & turn-a-new-page message - which worked wonderfully for Mayor-elect Michael Nutter in (of all places) Philadelphia - will resound particularly well with voters during this election cycle.

The second trend is really a result of the first: hungry for change, voters are less likely to accept the conventional wisdom of the beltway. And so the candidates and the issues that Washington insiders & the mainstream media predicted would dominate this year’s presidential races, whether it be Clinton vs. Giuliani or Iraq & tarrorism, have failed to materialize.

Considering these, I’d place my chips as follows:

On the Democratic side:

• Obama will be able to mobilize enough independent voters - who are expected to overwhelmingly caucus with the Democrats - to narrowly win top pick in the caucus. Independents are more likely to vote for Obama, the self-anointed “change” candidate, so if enough of them come out today, he is likely to score a victory.
• Edwards will come in second, based on his campaign’s well-placed strategy of courting less-populated rural districts that have been ignored by the other candidates. A very similar rural-focus strategy worked for Democrat Rod Blagojevich during the 2002 gubernatorial primary in another corn state, Illinois, and it may well work for Edwards here
• Hillary Clinton will, defying conventional wisdom, come in third. Her strongest asset in Iowa is her organization and her resource$ - not her appeal (voters prefer change to experience almost by a 2:1 margin) - and given the strong organization of both Obama and Edwards, that won’t be enough to tip the outcome in her favor.

On the Republican side:

• Huckabee will ride his support among Evangelical Christians to victory, buoyed by his alternative, populist message (again, what voters perceive as a “change” message and candidate and, again, an unconventional outcome to this race).
• Romney will come in second, thanks to his heavy spending and solid organization, not so much the “Bush - but more competent” appeal.
• McCain, written off earlier last year by the mainstream media and recently dubbed the “comeback kid” by many of those same media outlets, will be able to keep his campaign alive by coming in a strong third. His record of siding with Bush notwithstanding, many voters still perceive him as a palpable alternative to the Bush-Reagan era and so he also carries an appeal for voters who desire change and a new direction. Plus, voters’ positive perceptions of his integrity and ability to straight-talk will serve him well against his principal rival, Romney, who’s shot himself in the foot (with another gun he doesn’t own?) by going on a last-minute negative offensive against him and providing Huckabee with free ammunition.

The Ron Paul revolution? Not in Iowa, but there’s 49 states left, and Feb. 5th is right around the corner.

Chances are the Des Moines weather forecast will out-forecast me on these predictions, but that’s half the fun of watching election night coverage anyway, so I encourage everyone to place their chips on the table, come home a bit early today, grab a beer, and enjoy the caucus night 08!